Not a Bubble But a Wave

41905_005 The bubble conversation is sooooo annoying. When will everyone in America stop obsessing on this unimaginative metaphor? Just because the stock market crashed after the dot com crack party doesn’t mean that real estate is sure to follow. Realty is tangible. People have to live somewhere. Demographic forces and the need for shelter drive our markets, not consumer mood swings. read it

It’s a wave, people… most recently rolling inward from the coasts. Money pours into the Bay Area market, and a shortage of inventory drives up home prices. People cash out and move to Sacramento, Stockton, Modesto, Grass Valley. Some go as far Truckee. Many are starting to come here.

The wave continues, pushing up demand and pricing here in Reno. Some residents decide they’ve had enough growth and cash out to move to Boise, McCall, Salt Lake City and other points further inland. Salt Lake City’s market was in the tank for years, but picked up dramatically just this year. The wave rolls on.

Will this phenomenon continue? Long term, I think yes. As long as foreign money from the nouveau riche in Asia keeps pouring into San Francisco, enabling soon-to-be-retiring baby boomers to cash in on huge amounts of home equity and move to inland places offering the holy grail… quality of life. Yep, they’ll keep coming. I’m betting this will keep the pressure on our prices for many years to come.

Why? There’s only so much land, and not a whole lot of water. Development costs seem to be rising every year at significant rates. And we have the extra special bonus of so many companies expanding in Northern Nevada. That’s why I think, barring some unforeseen catastrophe, this area will continue to increase in value. Reno is a fabulous place to invest.

2 comments

  1. Dain

    You are right on with this post! Enough of the bubble bursting blabber talk.

  2. anon

    RE isn’t for non-productive parasites like yourself to earn commission off of flippers, it’s a place to live and raise a family. Americans don’t need stifing, 30-year mortgages so that banks and RE agents can prosper. They want cheap, high-quality housing with less middle-men so that they can spend their money on quality goods, vacations, and their retirement.

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