According to Saturday’s Reno Gazette Journal, Ted C. Jones, Chief Economist for Stewart Title Guaranty Company, went on to say, “You have to sober up the seller and educate the buyer. There’s too much expectation.” read
I wish I could have seen the reaction on the faces of the 250 real estate professionals in attendance at Stewart Title’s presentation on Friday when Mr. Jones made the ‘road kill’ comment.
Jones also advised the attendees to become more Web-based in their endeavors. "If you don’t have a killer Web site, you missed out," Jones said. How are Diane and I doing in this regard?
On another note, Reno Ignoramus sent me a link I’d like to share: House Price Drop? That’s Unpossible! [Fool.com] April 12, 2007
BanteringBear
Finally, a local industry insider is making some sense. It’s time for greedy, ignorant sellers and their agents to get a clue. Their prices are way over the top. The longer they wait to make adjustments, the more money they lose. Unless of course, they are those posers who really don’t want to sell, but will if they get their fantasy price.
I don’t know why realtors are agreeing to a lot of these listings. If they have been in the business for more than 5 minutes, they should understand that nobody is going to pay anything near what they are asking. I am seeing homes coming up on two years on the market. If these numbskulls couldn’t sell it in 2005, they’re definitely not going to get it done in 2007. I have never seen so many garbage 70’s tract homes for $350k in my life. NOBODY is going to buy these dumps.
Reno may very well be the most overpriced, bubblicious market in the country. There is no value in buying a house here right now. Until sellers make radical adjustments in their pricing, it’s a fools market.
MikeZ
RE: “You have to … educate the buyer.”
With all due respect, the uneducated buyers are already sitting in their recently-purchased, upside-down, 100% financed white elephants.
The only buyers left *are* the educated ones. We don’t need to be taught anything.
We’ve known the Reno RE market was unsustainable for years and we’re perfectly fine waiting for prices to come back down to 2002/2003 levels, plus inflation.
Until then, we’re enjoying low rents and good returns on the cash down payments we’ve set aside for our post-bubble purchases.
RenoIgnoramus
But BanteringBear,
From 2001-2005, the local REIC spent millions of dollars, yes, MILLIONS of dollars in advertising on television programs, and weekend newspaper supplements, and glossy fliers, and fancy mailers, and real estate magazines, and billboard ads with the following message:
They are not making any more land in Reno.
Everybody wants to live here.
Rich Bay Area transplants will buy up all the avaliable housing stock in Reno.
Prices in Reno never go down.
You can’t lose money buying a house in Reno.
You better buy now or you will be priced out forever.
Millions of dollars on advertising, and it worked. There are now thousands of sellers who believe this nonsense.
The REIC is simply living with consequences of its actions.
Green NV
“Roadkill.” The fact that this statement is coming from someone in the title/escrow end of the business is more than a bit frightening. April and especially May sales numbers will start reflecting the effect of tightened lending standards and a world without (as many) sub-prime borrowing options. If my house was on the market, I would be making a fire-sale priced reduction STAT. I think it is going to get pretty ugly out there, and I’m Mr. Brightside.
Guy, you asked about web sites and how you and Diane are doing. You look at your sites primarily as a sales and marketing tool. I look at them as primarily a research tool. That doesn’t necessessarily make our goals mutually exclusive, but there is a huge variation in what the sites out there can do:
CHASE
Generally a terrible site. Listing addresses aren’t posted, so I can’t do my own research. Only 6 listings per page. New listing feature is ok, but other sites do it better. The Current Market Report link is dead.
GUY
Not to be cruel, but your site is a mirror of Chase’s with a headshot attached. I don’t really learn much other than you are a good looking guy.
DIANE
Diane shows listing addresses, and is the only site I know that posts “Listing Status”. (note to Diane – show pendings in red or something eyecatching!) I would up the default 5 listings per page to at least 10 or maybe 25 – it saves search time. Her “Seller Information” page is the best come-to-jesus bitch-slap analysis of the market I’ve seen any agent post!
DICKSON
The site is fast and shows addresses. Photos are small. The feature to “Map Nearby Listings” is a great, quick comp research tool.
PRUDENTIAL
S-l-o-w. I like the ability to search by zip code, not just neighborhood. And you can sort by listing date which is a major tool. Largest photos of any site. Glitches with the mapping feature.
The sites based on the Chase template just don’t give enough of the information or tools I want, so I do my searches elsewhere.
Guy Johnson
Green NV,
Thank you for your feedback regarding our sites. Also, thanks for providing those links to the sites you use (in the “Deal of the Day” post [3/26] comments).
– Guy
NVMojo
I haven’t ventured out to the other sites mentioned in the above comment but I do enjoy this site and find most of the info helpful.
I did feel the statement made about “road kill” had a lot more of an ominous meaning than it seemed to have on the surface.
BanteringBear
“Anyone who is expecting or waiting for home prices in reno to reach the 2002 levels are in for a reality check. I agree there are some extremely overpriced homes on the market STILL, some of them Make me laugh uncontrollably. However 2002 levels wont be seen ever again in reno Im sorry. Fact is buyers right now are getting IN on RE at decent prices, pergaps not the best but none the less they are getting some pretty good deals. AS these “buyers” that claim to be sitting on the sidelines for prices to decline to 2002 levels well they are only going to miss out.”
So, in other words, Reno is “special” and immune to market fundamentals? What a crock. What are you basing your prognostications on, hope? Have you checked inventories lately? That’ll give you an indication of where prices are headed, and how out of balance supply and demand are. Long term, prices will represent what local wages can afford. It’s as simple as that.
MikeZ
“So, in other words, Reno is “special” and immune to market fundamentals? What a crock. ”
Derrick hasn’t worked his way through denial and into acceptance yet.
Give him another 6 mos to grieve the death of the RE bubble and for reality to set in.
Reno Girl
“Anyone who is expecting or waiting for home prices in reno to reach the 2002 levels are in for a reality check.”
You are absolutely right Derrick. I will keep renting and continue socking my savings away. When the prices reach 1999 levels, or when housing prices are in line with rent fundamentals, then I’ll buy (and I’ll be calling Diane to help me). You see, you have only lived here for 4 bubblicious years and know nothing of the economy of Reno except one that has been propped up by the REIC. It is amazing how many stories I have heard lately of foreclosures, lost jobs related to Real Estate, and people carrying double mortgage payments because they bought before they sold. This is not an area like Northern California, we don’t have the high paying jobs or infrastructure to keep the bubble artificially inflated for too long. Oh, and who do you think drove our prices up in the first place? There was an article in the RGJ a few months back with a quote from a local realtor saying that everything will be alright with our real estate market because “the Californians are starting to come back”. What happens when you put all your eggs in one basket and they all fall out and break?
You have no data or factual info to back up your claims that prices won’t fall beyond 2002 levels. What happens when credit continues to tighten, houses continue to sit, and inventory skyrockets (have you noticed, they haven’t stopped building)? It’s not rocket science, seems to me that there’s only one obvious thing that can happen…
Insider
This is what happens when a bubble collapses http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001.html Just replace “stocks” with “real estate” and you get the picture. I believe we are currently at stage 15. So you can see we have a long fall in front of us.
BanteringBear
“DO the local wages support the home prices in northern cali? I think not yet they are still, and have been out of reach for years now.”
Fools logic. We are talking a about Reno/Sparks, not northern CA. The bay area is a world class destination, and is able to sustain pricing above what median wages afford due to an influx of wealth from not only this country, but around the world. The same CANNOT be said for this area. This sounds like yet another case of a bay area transplant bringing their distorted perceptions with them. FYI, when in Rome, do as the Romans. This aint CA, and your “but, back in California” crap doesn’t fly here.
doofus
Got to side with Derrick on this one. We aren’t ever going to see 2002 numbers here again.
Get over it, Reno IS a northern California market. Sorry about the locals who work in logistics or at the casino, but pricing is going to continue to be set by the buyers coming here, not living here.
BBear (and others), you have great sentence structure, but I have not seen you back up your dire claims with hard data. So your voice is just an opinion, and only as valid as Derrick’s or my own.
Reno Ignoramus
See, I told you.
The REIC has got good return out of the millions of dollars it spent on advertising. Here are two people who have bought into:
#1. They are not making any more land in Reno.
#2. Everybody wants to live here.
and, the always good ol’standby when nothing else works:
#3. Rich Bay Area transplants will buy up all the housing stock in Reno.
Reno is a northern California market? I’m sorry, it’s just hard to take that seriously. Where is the “hard data” that supports that claim???
Well, there is some bit of truth to that. A lot of the flippers who got left holding the bag in Reno are from California.
Lindie
SHHHHHHHHH Everybody……..
There are about 7,500 listings on the MLS now, and if you listen real hard, you can hear those 18,750 Bay Area transplants coming to buy all our houses at this very moment. It looks like there will be about 2.5 Bay Area refugees for every listing in Reno-Sparks…….
BanteringBear
“Get over it, Reno IS a northern California market. Sorry about the locals who work in logistics or at the casino, but pricing is going to continue to be set by the buyers coming here, not living here.”
This is quite possibly the most foolish statement ever written on this blog. Real estate is by and large local. While the loose lending was national, each bubble market in this country will fare differently depending upon the local economies. While there certainly have been a large number of Californians “investing” in area real estate, they can, by no means, carry the entire market. With better than 400k people, it’s simply not possible. Again, long term prices are dictated by what “wage earners” can afford, not “speculators”.
“BBear (and others), you have great sentence structure, but I have not seen you back up your dire claims with hard data. So your voice is just an opinion, and only as valid as Derrick’s or my own.”
If you’re looking for hard data, you haven’t been thoroughly reading this blog. Diane and Guy have done a wonderful job of reporting sales numbers, figures, trends, etc. If you want historic data regarding price history in this area, I’d be happy to provide a link.
NOBODY can predict the future. We all have our opinions on how low prices will go. I have no leverage in local real estate, and will not be buying here. I have no motives. But I did grow up here, and I choose to base my opinions on the current economic realities of this area, as well as its history.
I find it humorous that Derrick, having bought in 2002, loudly proclaimed that prices will never reach that point again. If I had to guess, I would think you bought high as well. Such is life.
Irving
Reno as well as Vegas prices are doomed. They were all artificially inflated by speculators and mortgage frauders which caused them to rise way above their true value and what the local workers could afford to pay. You will see prices at 2001 levels before this is all over, especially now that credit is tightening.
Mike Van H
Aren’t you guys being a little harsh? Calling sellers greedy ignorants? I can’t speak for everyone, but I would imagine most people buying or selling homes, especially those that aren’t doing it to ‘flip’ homes, really don’t know that much about the real estate market, other than what our REAL ESTATE AGENT, home appraisers, and other professionals tell us. I own two homes here, yet I don’t know about half the things you guys talk about on this blog.
Perhaps some of the blame of this bubble should be placed on real estate agents, appraisers and whoever else is involved with advising sellers what price to sell their home at. In reality, when dieciding their selling price, don’t most sellers get an appraisal, and look around the immediate neighborhood for other homes on the market and see what they are selling for?
And if you think real etsate agents aren’t to blame partially, ha! I have two friends in Spanish Springs with their homes up for sale to move closer to town, and I had to laugh at the prices the agents suggested using when they put their home on the market. There was no talk of ‘Oooh that’s probably too high’ or ‘If you put your home on the market at that price you’ll be lucky if you sell it in 24 months.’ They advised them to list their homes higher than what it was currently appraised at, and probably $40,000-$50,000 over what it will probably end up selling for. So why? Out of desparity that some poor soul might be dumb enough to scoop up at the home at that price? Perhaps Guy and Diane can shed some light on that. Are agents REALLY trying to get home sellers to list at lower prices?
MikeZ
“I find it humorous that Derrick, having bought in 2002, loudly proclaimed that prices will never reach that point again. If I had to guess, I would think you bought high as well.”
Don’t forget the “numerous upgrade” which he won’t mention.
Back in 2002, you paid for every one of those upgrades, unlike today where anyone can get $50K (or more!) in upgrades for free … to keep the official sales price artificially high and to distort the truth.
No doubt it must be very difficult to accept that all that false bubble equity – $100,000 or more – is going away.
Derrick
Like I said let me know when you find comparable house to mine for ssle in the same area for less than 270k. I will be waiting. but by all means dont feel sorry for me as im doing quite fine. I didnt buy my house only as an investment I also bought as a place to live, I have no plans on selling now or in 5 years. if your looking to move to california let me know I have a home for sale in Santa rosa for 1.3 million I would be more than happy to have diane draw up a contract for you.