2011: Worst year on record for new home sales; but 2013 will be better

The number of new homes sold nationally in 2011 represented the lowest number sold since records were being kept from 1963. See the AP story on AOL Real Estate: New Home Sales 2011: Worst Year on Record

Locally, Washoe County new homes sales were also down to record levels for 2011…

Washoe County recorded new home sales by year:

  • 2005 4,615 new home sales
  • 2009 875 new home sales
  • 2010 681 new home sales
  • 2011 592 new home sales

source: Washoe County Insured Recording Statistics 2005 – 2007
source: Washoe County Insured Recording Statistics 2007 – 2009
source: Washoe County Insured Recording Statistics 2009 – 2011

But despite the negative forecasts of recent years for the local market, the local
construction sector sees indicators for stabilization — predicting a stable 2012 and forecasting growth in 2013. See today’s Reno Gazette-Journal story regarding the Builders Association of Northern Nevada’s “Forecast 2012 and Beyond”: Construction sector sees indicators for stabilization

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Fed to keep rates low, and other news items

Lots of news impacting the real estate industry this week…

  • The Federal Reserve announced that they expect to keep short-term interest rates near zero for the next three years — citing the economy and the housing market still needing help. See the Wall Street Journal story: Fed Sees Low Rates to 2014
  • The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) is planning to reduce the cap on allowable seller concessions. Currently set at 6 percent, the allowable seller concessions cap my be reduced to 5%, 4%, or maybe even 3%. Read this interesting Inman News piece for one take on the coming cap reductions: FHA may lower cap on seller concessions to buyers
  • Today, the Reno Gazette-Journal ran a piece mentioning the list and containing some comments from local officials. See the RGJ piece: Report: Reno, Carson economies hardest hit
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U.S. housing supply lowest in four years

The Wall Street Journal reported that the nation’s listed inventory is the at its lowest level in four years. December’s inventory was 6 percent below November’s listed inventory; and represented a whopping 22 percent decline from the previous December.

See Housing Inventory Ends Year Down 22%

The WSJ piece states “Inventories were down for the year in all but one of the 145 markets tracked by Realtor.com, with Springfield, Ill., posting the only year-over-year inventory gain.”
How does the local inventory compare to the Nation’s? Looking at the most recent numbers (see December median sold price, units, DOM, $/sq.ft.) I see that December 2011′s Active listed inventory for Reno-Sparks, Nevada was 1,403 units. This number represented a 9.2 percent decline from November’s 1,545 Active listings, and a 30.6 percent decline from December 2010′s Active inventory.

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Washoe County Insured Recording Statistics – December 2011

Below are Washoe County’s insured recording statistics for the month of December. Recording statistics are provided to us by our friends at Ticor Title.

Click on the image below to enlarge.


December Re-fi’s have exhibited five consecutive months of month-over-month increases — and are at their highest level since December 2010.

December Resales in Washoe County jumped 10.5 percent over November’s total — and are up 5.8 percent year-over-year.

New home sales slid in December compared to November’s record new homes sales for the year; but are up year-over-year.

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FCT’s Market Condition Report – December 2011

Below please find December’s Market Condition Report for the Northern Nevada area provided by our friends at First Centennial Title Company of Nevada. (Click on the report to enlarge.)

From December’s report:

The Ratio of Supply to Demand measures the number of units of supply relative to the number of closings per month (demand). All other things being equal, the smaller this number, the tighter the area market. Green formatting signals relatively tight markets in the area segment. Weeks Supply Given Demand is the absorption rate (the number of weeks required to exhaust current supply given current demand).

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Home loan costs to increase

[Ed. Note -- I received the email below from one of my colleagues in the lending arena; Lisa Fleck of Summit Funding. Lisa sends me news from time to time pertaining to home loans and financing. In her post below below Lisa explains how Congress' recent passaged of the Temporary Payroll Tax Cut Continuation Act of 2011 will increase loan costs to borrowers. I thought I'd share Lisa's information with this blog.]

Just before the legislature went on vacation for the holidays they passed the Temporary Payroll Tax Cut Continuation Act of 2011, extending the payroll tax for 2 months.  This payroll tax helps to pay for unemployment and social security.

Congress is funding this act by permanently increasing costs on home loans. 

Set to go into effect in April 2012, Congress has mandated that the annual FHA mortgage insurance premium be increased ten basis points, from the current 1.15% to 1.25%.  On a $150,000.00 loan this equates to a monthly increase of the mortgage insurance premium from $143.75 to $156.25. 

Additionally, effective April 1, a new G-fee of .10% has been added to conventional loans provided by all lenders in the country.  This fee is not a simple rate add, on but rather a yield add on.  The yield is the cost that lenders must pay Fannie and Freddie to buy the loan.  This cost is then passed onto the borrower and the cost that they have to pay for a rate.

It is anticipated that this yield cost will actually equate to .375% to .5% in additional cost to the borrower.  This cost can be incorporated into a higher rate or can be paid but the net result is that the rates on conventional loans have just increased and it has nothing to do with market conditions.

Example:  If the borrower was quoted a rate yesterday at 4% with 1% cost they would have to pay today 1.5% to get that same rate or they could chose a rate of 4.25% for 1% cost.

On a $200,000 loan this could equate to an additional $750.00 to $1000.00 in costs.

The reason why this impact is being felt right now is lenders are currently locking loans which will close in Feb and Mar, depending on the length of the lock.  It will take a lender 30-45 to sell that loan to Fannie and Freddie, which would then occur after April 1 making it subject to the .10% increase.

Your borrowers need to know about the changes to the costs of obtaining loans due to the legislation that has been passed.

This is explained very well on the 1/12/12 broadcast at www.thetbwsdailyshow.com. I recommend watching this short 5 minutes video – Your Buyers Pay More – Starting NOW!

Please let me know if I can be of any additional assistance or if you have any questions.

Lisa Fleck
Senior Loan Consultant 
Summit Funding, Inc.
775.824.3640
lfleck@summitfunding.net

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Nevada #1 in foreclosures for the 5th straight year

Despite Nevada’s foreclosures dropping 31 percent in 2011 compared to 2010, the state’s 6-plus percent foreclosure rate was the highest in the country for the fifth consecutive year. Nevada’s 1 in 16 foreclosure filing rate is more than four times the national average of 1 in 69 (1.45 percent)

Which states had the highest foreclosure rates for 2011?

  1. Nevada: 6 percent (1 in 16 housing units received at least one foreclosure filing in 2011)
  2. Arizona: 4.14 percent (or 1 in 24)
  3. California: 3.19 percent (or 1 in 31)
  4. Georgia: 2.71 percent (or 1 in 37)
  5. Utah: 2.32 percent (or 1 in 43)
  6. Michigan: 2.21 percent
  7. Florida: 2.06 percent
  8. Illinois: 1.95 percent
  9. Colorado: 1.78 percent
  10. Idaho: 1.77 percent

Source: RealtyTrac® See the report here: 2011 Year-End Foreclosure Report: Foreclosures on the Retreat

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Lake Tahoe home prices drop 13 percent in 2011

My Broker, Chase International, recently released the year-end market numbers for Lake Tahoe. (See the press release below). Units sold rose 1 percent year-over-year. Median price fell 13 percent.

Zephyr Cove, Nev. (Jan. 5, 2012) – Year-end home sales at Lake Tahoe are holding steady compared to 2010 with some indicators on the rise, according to a quarterly report released by Lake Tahoe-based real estate firm Chase International, which notes a one-percent increase in units sold around the lake.

The National Association of Realtors recently reported that existing home sales rose again in November and remain above a year ago, and the latest Tahoe housing market sales figures concur with this national trend. In fact, while real estate sales and prices took a slight dip around the Lake overall, the East Shore market segment saw a one-percent increase in median home price ($575,000) and a 35-percent jump in average price ($1,286,924). Volume sold on the East Shore was up 26 percent, while the number of units was down seven percent.

Although the number of units sold is up slightly, the median price of a home in Lake Tahoe is down thirteen percent to $365,000 from 2010’s year-end numbers. The average home price fell 14 percent to $607,683.

“High end home sales on the East Shore helped buoy the Lake Tahoe market,” said Susan Lowe, corporate vice president for Chase International. “It definitely is still a buyers’ market as average and median prices have continued to fall, but with units sold rising, we believe the market is strengthening.”

Truckee reflects this same trend, seeing a two-percent increase in units sold and a 17-percent rise in units sold for less than a million. The median price of a home in Truckee is $438,166 (down 10 percent) and the average price is $562,811 (also down 10 percent).

The condominium market around Lake Tahoe experienced a six-percent decline over 2010 in units sold. However, for units sold for more than $500,000, a notable 29 percent jump. Tahoe City experienced the most pronounced increase in sales over 2010 sales figures, with a three-percent rise in units sold and up 50-percent in units sold for over $500,000. South Lake Tahoe saw a 21-percent increase in overall volume sold, with median and average prices rising 14 and 69 percent, respectively. The median price of a condo in Lake Tahoe is $262,000 (down eight percent) and the average price is $348,868 (down 12 percent).

About Chase International

Headquartered in Lake Tahoe, Nevada since 1986, with eight offices in the region (Zephyr Cove, Glenbrook, Incline Village, Tahoe City, Squaw Valley, Truckee, South Lake Tahoe and Reno) and one in London, England, Chase International and its exclusive affiliations handles a large share of property transactions throughout the country. A recognized leader in the world of real estate, Chase International continues to grow having added 65 Realtors® to their ranks in the past twelve months.

With 240 professional Realtors® boasting an array of industry certifications and the highest volume per sales agent in the area, Chase International successfully represents homes at all price levels. For more information about Chase International, visit www.chaseinternational.com.

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