Guy and I presented our first formal blogging class today to
about 35 agents in our office. Our goal was to demystify the process and show
them how easy it really is, and judging by the comments we’ve received, it was
a total success. Some are already out there setting up WordPress and buying
domain names.
and had to laugh. One important point we made was to post at least 3-4 times
per week to establish a track record and credibility online. Our number of
posts this week? Two. But seriously, the level of conversation in the comment
column under Monday’s market post was so high, we just had to let that sit at
the top and run for a while. visit
limit the number of puff pieces about remodeling or whatever. So what was our
number two post? As Guy put it, total fluff. Actually I thought it was pretty
interesting. Especially the title.
very own street that will definitely tank my own property value. C’est la vie.
The market is the market. We’re talking 3800 square feet, 5 bedroom, 4.5
bathroom, nice, newer, family home on the 18th Fairway of the Tom
Kite Championship golf course with views of the pond and waterfall. At $181 per
square foot, it’s a best buy. (Please forgive the bad temporary photos, the
real ones will be up next week.) visit
Sales Continue to Fall
Journal: Nevada Economy
Dips Again
Changes Affect Housing
Distant Subprime Cousin & How You’re Related
Work Out (Sing Along)
End of the Line for Real Estate Agents?
lenders this week who see continued thinning in the ranks, and brokers cutting
back on expenses wherever they can. I think some Realtors now go from party to
party around town, thankful for the free food and wine (or maybe it’s just
me… hey, that’s one more meal I don’t have to pay for) as others take
extended vacations.
developer with a new project, Realtors with highly-paid husbands and a ritzy
house to show, and of course, the title companies still seem to have money
(though I hear they’re cutting back on escrow officers).
with told me that she’s having to turn down refi’s left and right because the people
are upside down or no longer qualify given new standards. She knows in the
first few minutes whether or not they’re qualified, but because of fair housing
laws, she has to go through the entire qualification process anyway to avoid
any question of discrimination, which ends up creating a lot of busy work that
will never lead to a paycheck. Though normally focused on the high-end, my
sense is that anybody who qualifies is now a godsend, but please don’t tell her
your job is related to the housing industry because that’s a potential deal-breaker
for the bank.
there are still plenty of true professionals out there tightening their belts,
moving forward and serving their clients well. Most of us seem to feel that
this process, though painful, is healthy.
clients looking to buy or sell now despite market conditions, so, knock on
wood, I think we’re good for the moment.
smarten
Diane –
You forgot to hyperlink to two very relevant real estate articles in yesterday’s and today’s RGJ.
The first is yesterday’s headline on page 9A of the Business section: “Gibbons: Housing Not in Crisis” [ http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2007710050487 ]. Talk about denial!
The second is today’s front page article: “Nevada property tax cap efforts scrapped” [ http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=200771005022 ]. Some of you may remember this is a subject I introduced to this blog a couple of weeks ago. Sharron Angle [a former assemblywoman from Reno] is spearheading a grassroots effort [via referendum] to amend the constitution to bring California’s Proposition 13 [which caps annual real property tax increases to no more than 2%] to Nevada. As the article points out, Sharron is being fought at every turn by organized liberals [gee, aren’t those (San Francisco Bay Area) California expatriates (watch out what you wish for Reno)?]. IMO Sharron deserves the support of ALL Nevada property owners and wannabe owners!
annie
re: Castlehawk
Unless my information is incorrect, this property is in default and heading toward the courthouse steps. An attempted quick sale for a bad flip?
rudy
congrats guys!
can’t wait to see the pics. did you get any video?
best,
– rudy
Sharie L. Lewis
I attended the blogging class in Reno on Thursday and had a lot of fun while learning a lot. I was way off based on my plans for the blog I am working on so am revamping all plans so it doesn’t include the “fluff”. I went straigt from the class to purchase the books you recommended and only found one, but did find others with probably contain comparable information. I have already dove into two of them with excitement.
I look forward to attending the “Advanced Course” to go over more useful information.
Thank you,
Sharie L. Lewis
Executive Administrator for Trinkie Watson
GreenNV
annie, I think you have this property confused with another one on Castlehawk. I can’t see any negative activity here, just the dive in value.
Slander and Libel law suits based on Blog postings is a growth industry. You need to have the verifiable facts down solid in stone to protect yourself from future acrion.
Danger, Will Robinson!
annie
Dear GreenNV:
I couldn’t agree with you more with the erroneous information on blogs.
With regards to Castlehawk, my remark should have cited my source: http://www.foreclosure.com (I have an account that allows me to check on public information). As a potential Reno buyer, I have found foreclosure.com useful in assessing the market. I have no affiliation with the web site.
DeRRICK
Good realtors will buy and sell homes in any market. I have a good friend who works for dickson realty, I would like to add she is truly an agent people can trust to look out for their best interests, Not to mention a wonderful friend of the family. Anyways, She has sold 5 properties in the last 2 months. I dont think all the realtors are starving just the bad ones 😉
I'm Not Your Piggybank
How Are Houses in Your Area Doing Versus Inflation?
Financial Writer Scott Burns has an interesting article today regarding housing in Texas. Then he instructs how to figure how housing is doing versus inflation in your own area. Here’s the link to the article: http://assetbuilder.com/blogs/scott_burns/archive/2007/10/05/d-233-j-224-vu-texas.aspx
Any chance someone could look at this and figure it out for the Reno area and interpret what the results indicate? I’m going to try to do it also, but other posters on this blog are probably better at this than I am. Anyway, it was an interesting article.
Move to Reno?
I’m not ur Piggybank, that was a good link. If the historical examples hold true for the current downturn, we have a long way to go for the Reno real estate market. Its high was 251.75 during 1Q-2006 and it is currently 235.39. Assuming a 25% decline in SFR prices, the index will return to 188.81 before it heads upward again.
Regarding the inflation index, some folks think that the CPI number the gov’t uses seriously under-estimates inflation because the gov’t uses that number to calculate cost of living increases for the Social Security system and retirement pensions.
jody
Wondering if someone could answer a question for me. I have found a nice property in foreclosure and the property taxes are almost twice as much as other properties the same sales price. If we bought it could we have the property taxes revaluated? Are the property taxes sure to come down next year whith the falling housing prices? Like others on this site we are a family waiting to buy till the market hits bottom.
DeRRICK
I must say, I really hope all you bottom waiters know how to time the market right. Otherwise that dream home you have been wanting just might be snatched up by someone else..
Any professional will tell you that it is extremely hard and requires a little luck as well to time the market precisely. GOOD LUCK!
BanteringBear
DeRRICK posts:
“I must say, I really hope all you bottom waiters know how to time the market right. Otherwise that dream home you have been wanting just might be snatched up by someone else…Any professional will tell you that it is extremely hard and requires a little luck as well to time the market precisely. GOOD LUCK!”
BZZZZZZZT! Nope, sorry, wrong answer yet again DeRRICK. By the time real estate bottoms out there will be so few buyers that anyone left will have their pick of the litter. Furthermore, the idea that once a bottom is reached prices will begin some spontaneous rapid ascent is pure fallacy.
What you’re talking about DeRRICK, are sheeple running out and buying on the dips because they think they’re smart and getting some grand deal since the price is 25% less than the last guy paid. These suckers will be fleeced all the way to said bottom.
smarten
Stated differently BB, our friend Derrick thinks buying real estate is equivalent to selling national home builder stocks short on the NASDAQ.
And since none of us are rich by Derrick’s definition of rich, he would never listen to suggestions from us that he not attempt to time the stock market precisely because he’s talented and doesn’t require luck!
BTW Derrick, did you mean bottom “feeders” rather than “waiters?”
BanteringBear
A newbie poster Jason has recently been shouting about how prices will NEVER see 1999 values again. He is adamant about this, and defied Mike Van H to show him proof of Spanish Springs houses which sold for $169k back in 2003. To him I respond, get off your lazy @$$ and do some research yourself, because they’re a dime a dozen. Educate yourself before spouting this sort of tripe.
I have several friends who reside in Spanish Springs, and who are not bubble buyers. They are solid, hard working middle class types who bought houses in the 1990’s which are mostly 3/2/2’s on 1/3 acre lots. They paid around $100k. At the peak, these homes were selling for up to $350k.
Let’s take a look at 255 Mia Dr. It’s on the market for $284k. It was purchased in 2005 for $304,500. Prior to that, it sold in 2001 for $144k. I suspect that, after all is said and done, it will easily drop below it’s 2001 value in inflation adjusted dollars, and quite possibly in nominal dollars. People have a hard time wrapping their brains around this, but wages are stagnant to declining, and the forces which propelled these bubble prices had nothing to do with what people could actually afford. In the future, we will get back to what the working man/woman can afford in the area. There is no way around it. Pain is on the horizon.
jocy
How hard can it be to time the market just right, just wait until the real estate ads stop saying “reduced by $110,000” AND aren’t still sitting on the market.
Move to Reno?
How can people afford to $1000 or $1400 or more for rent?
The primary factors that will determine how this busted bubble plays out is the mortgage wild card and any possible new laws passed by the law makers inside the Beltway.
In inflation adjusted dollars, 255 Mia Dr. sold in 2001 for $170k. Of course, the primary building materials for houses have gone up a lot more that the CPI because of the demand in Iraq and China/India for plywood, lumber, copper, PVC, and cement.
What are comparable new homes selling for? That is the primary gauge to figure out how low re-sales will go in the future since many people prefer new homes to old ones.
I recently read in the Las Vegas paper that the builders in Las Vegas have lowered their prices as much as they can whereas the re-sale market is still stuck in the past. I suspect that will change in 2008.
I doubt that Reno will see 2001 prices again because population growth coupled with buyer postponement will kick in before those levels will be reached.
Ann O.
I haven’t seen a response to Jody’s questions, so I will take a stab at them.
Without having all the information, I’m guessing that the property in foreclosure with property taxes higher than other houses with the same sales price is a lot newer than the other houses. The tax assessor depreciates the structure regularly. In general, new houses have high taxes and old houses of the same value have low taxes. You can see one of the incentives for the local governments to keep approving development–without it, their income would drop every year.
When the tax assessor sends out the new assessed values every year (spring or summer), they provide instructions on appealing the value. I have done that successfully, so I know it can be done.
I would not count on property taxes going down next year. One, the county is hurting for money and eliminating positions already. They are going to hold on to every cent they can. Two, the assessed value is restricted by state law now on how much it can go up each year, so most houses in the area never reached an assessed value close to their market value at the peak of the boom. Maybe there will be room for some of the houses sold for the first time at the peak to have their assessments lowered. Remember that the value of the structure will be lowered (depreciated) automatically.
I’ve always suspected that the assessor bumps up the value of the lot to compensate for depreciating the structure because the assessed value has never approached the market value of our house. The year I appealed the value I was just appealing the value of the lot.
BanteringBear
Move to Reno? posted:
“I doubt that Reno will see 2001 prices again because population growth coupled with buyer postponement will kick in before those levels will be reached.”
Where in the world are you getting this stuff?? By “buyer postponement” do you mean pent-up demand? Following a bubble which produced the highest rate of home ownership ever seen, not to mention home speculators, there is no such thing as pent-up demand. The numbers of people waiting on the sidelines pale in comparison with the supply side of the market. And population growth will “kick in” because everyone wants to live in Reno since it’s “special”, right? You need to come up with some new material because these are completely baseless assertions.
GreenNV
Good reply, Anne O.
For new construction, the taxable value can be near or at sales price. But for resales, taxable value does not reset to the sales price on sale (inspite of what some of our Montreux mavens believe).
Tax rates are set by the budgets of the local jurisdictions empowered to impose taxes, run through the Cuisinart, and in the end, the X value to solve the equation is land value – it is the only variable that can be manipulated.
Is it equitable? My personal opinion is that it sort of sucks hoovers (not you, Phil). If you are willing to pay a certain price for a property, I think you should be taxed proportionally for it. Smells like Prop 13!
Move to Reno?
Now, now, Bantering Bear, seems like there are a lot of “potential” buyers hanging around this blog, just waiting for prices to drop in order to buy. The pent-up demand is out there. Is it true that the home ownership rate in Reno is only 47.7%, way below the national average? Sure, there are plenty of houses for sale in Reno, it’s just that prices are too damn high. However, population in the Reno MSA is increasing at what rate? 2% to 3% a year?
Employment growth from 1/06 to 1/07 was 8.8%
Unemployment is just 5%. Median household income is $47, 402.
My point is that prices don’t have to drop 40% or 60% from the bubble top for people in Reno to be able to afford reasonable housing. Prices so far have hardly dropped at all. Reno’s housing index hit a peak of 251 in 1st Q06 and at the end of 2nd Q07 was 235. A 25% drop will bring the index to 188. When the index gets to 188 let me know how Reno’s real estate market is doing.
Speculators pushed up prices but they have left the scene. The houses that they “bought” (actually bought by the bagholders in China, Europe, and wall street) are now empty and ready for “real people” to buy and enjoy. The bagholders will take billion of dollars in losses but that will teach them a lesson.
Anyway, I bet that most of the people in Reno moved there from California and that another wave of them will be coming to town before too long, especially when home prices drop 25% from the peak.
I have never stated that Reno is “special”. You and I both know that it a super-sized truck stop. People move to Reno because of tax advantages, jobs, the mountains, the run-down casinos, and it’s the place where there car broke down. One thing is for sure. People are moving to Reno.
longerwalk
Move to Reno? Wrote: “Regarding the inflation index, some folks think that the CPI number the gov’t uses seriously under-estimates inflation because the gov’t uses that number to calculate cost of living increases for the Social Security system and retirement pensions.”
Actually, it’s further out of whack than you think. Hasn’t been changed in more than 30 years since the pols can’t agree on how to change it to protect their pet milch cow. Problem is, it doesn’t take into account things like computers and other items that reside in your & my ‘market basket’ today that didn’t exist when the basket was set. I would submit that the real, honest-go-goodness cost of living (roof, food, transportation) has probably gone way down in relation to income. Of course, things like medical have gone way up. Then when one mixes in the ‘not currently included’ and the ‘no one buys that anymore’ items it is difficult to conclude anything.
2sleepy
just ran across this;
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21151323/
tabbycattx
I am reading with great interest all the posts on this blog–some very good ones, I might add. I am in the position of having been a house buyer through the housing bust in Houston in the 1980’s and now I’m probably coming to Reno and seeing a repeat performance. All the same comments and agruments except the names are different. California transplants were northerner transplants etc.
I also would recommend Scott Burns article referenced in another post. http://assetbuilder.com/blogs/scott_burns/archive/2007/10/05/d-233-j-224-vu-texas.aspx
During the Texas correction, I purchased my house 30% below it’s high and 3 years later I wouldn’t have been able to sell it for 50% of what I paid for it. I’m still living in the same house and I’ve done well in the long run but that’s 23 years. My point is that the “low” can be lower than you ever imagined. And the bottom, as Scott Burns points out, can and probably will last for years. It won’t be hard to identify. You will be living it. Will I be buying if I come to Reno? Are you kidding? IMO, you guys haven’t seen anything yet. Thanks to everyone for your posts.