According to the new Realtor.com® 2026 National Housing Forecast, the U.S. housing market is finally finding a firmer footing, moving toward a “Balanced Market” after years of extreme strain. The report projects 2026 will be a year of gradual recovery rather than a rapid surge, with supply and demand coming into better alignment.
Key Takeaways & Metrics
- Mortgage Rates: Expected to average 6.3% in 2026, a slight decrease from the 6.6% average in 2025. Rates are projected to remain above 6% for the foreseeable future.
- Home Prices: Predicted to grow by a modest 2.2% nationally. However, when adjusted for inflation, “real” home prices are expected to see a slight decline for the second consecutive year.
- Home Sales: Existing-home sales are forecast to rise by 1.7% to approximately 4.13 million units. While an improvement over 2025’s near 30-year low, this is still well below pre-pandemic norms.
- Inventory: For-sale inventory is expected to grow by 8.9%, marking the third straight year of gains. This trend is slowly shifting negotiating power back toward buyers.
Affordability and Renter Trends
- Affordability Threshold: For the first time since 2022, the typical mortgage payment is expected to fall below the 30% affordability threshold, slipping to 29.3% of median income.
- Rent Relief: National rents are forecast to drop by 1.0%. The South and West, where new multifamily supply is robust, are expected to see the largest declines.
- Homeownership Rate: Despite improved affordability, the national homeownership rate is projected to dip to 64.8%, as renting remains a significantly more cost-effective option in many markets.
Regional Outlook: “The Refuge Markets”
The forecast highlights a stark divide between regions. Buyers are increasingly moving toward “value-hubs” where inventory remains tight and prices are more resilient.
- Top Growth Markets: Metros in the Northeast and Midwest, such as Hartford, CT, Rochester, NY, and Toledo, OH, are expected to see the strongest combined growth in sales and prices.
- Softening Markets: The South and West are experiencing more inventory growth and cooling prices, offering new opportunities for buyers and renters who were previously priced out.
Realtor.com® 2026 National Housing Forecast
| Metric | 2025 (Estimated) | 2026 (Forecast) |
|---|---|---|
| Mortgage Rates (Average) | ~6.6% | ~6.3% |
| Existing-Home Price Growth (YoY) | +2.0% | +2.2% |
| Existing-Home Sales Growth (YoY) | +0.1% (4.07 million) | +1.7% (4.13 million) |
| For-Sale Inventory Growth (YoY) | +15.2% | +8.9% |
| National Homeownership Rate | 65.1% | 64.8% |
Note: “YoY” refers to Year-over-Year change. Data based on the Realtor.com® Economics 2026 Forecast.
Conclusion
Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale describes 2026 as a “welcome, if modest, step toward a healthier market.” While the “lock-in effect” of homeowners holding onto low mortgage rates will continue to limit turnover, a combination of rising incomes and a more balanced supply-demand dynamic is finally beginning to ease the housing squeeze.
Source: Summary based on the Realtor.com® 2026 National Housing Forecast.