From time to time, Diane has asked what other real estate sites we lay folks use for research, and has asked for comments on her MLS site (many of which have been implemented).  And many of us have voiced disappointment (outrage?) at the level of MLS access we mere mortals have.

Well, I ran into an agent whose site is doing it right.  Mitch Argon Of CalNeva Realty down in Minden has created a site with unprecedented access to MLS data, as well as a lot of other cool features.  I’m still learning my way around the site, but here are some things I really like:

-  You can search a wide variety of regions - Reno, Sparks, Tahoe, Carson, Minden, etc.

-  You can search homes for sale in specific school districts.

-  You can search foreclosure / short sales (would love to see these as separate categories).

-  You can sort by price or listing date (some of the old listings are pretty funny).

-  You can search the 25 latest listings.

-  Listings include sales status.

-  New Homes search connects to all the developers’ web sites.

 - You can search builders’ standing inventory.

-  Addresses and prices of sold homes are posted monthly.

-  You can search by date built.  This handy feature allowed me figure out a stat that has been elusive - over 8% of Reno Sparks MLS listings are now builder listings.

It seems the level of access to MLS data is determined by the individual agents for their web sites.  In an era when you still have to register for some sites, others don’t even give addresses, and most veil the available information, I have to give Mitch a lot of credit for giving the consumer what they want.  Check out his site  - I’m sure he would like to hear your feedback.  And  Mitch, if you are reading this, we would love to learn what your strategy is all about.

Any other cool, hip resources out there?

Last week Diane linked to a video of a presentation that we attended at the recent Inman Connect conference in NYC.  Today I’d like to share another one of the excellent presentations we attended.  In this video John H. Vogel Jr., Adjunct Professor of Business Administration at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth, explains: What Went Wrong in the Housing Market and What Can We Do to Fix It?

If you have 30 minutes to spare, I recommend watching this video (click on the link above).  I found Mr. Vogel’s presentation and his ideas worth a listen.

Here is a synopsis of the video content:

0:59 - What are some of the components of the problem?
• record inventory
• nationally, the Case-Shiller® Home Price Index is down 5% for 2007
• presently, the Case-Shiller® Home Price index is projecting another 7.7% decline in the next year.
• 2 million homes owners in danger of losing their homes

2:40 - What is the scale of the housing problem?  If you took all those homeowners at risk of losing their homes and concentrated them in the New England area, it would be equivalent to every homeowner in Maine, New Hamshire, Vermont and Rhode Island combined.

3:00 - Debunking the popular causes presented by the media, namely unscrupulous lenders and uneducated/reckless borrowers.

5:00 - What is a more likely cause?  A dramatic drop in risk tolerance…

6:30 - …which led to a rise of sub-prime lending (20% of the mortgage market)

7:24 - all the while housing became increasingly less affordable (from 2.7 : 1 home price:income ratio to 8:1 ratio home price:income.

9.25 - Who are these 2 million homeowners at risk of losing their homes?  Families with children.  Having a child is the biggest single indicator of someone filing for bankruptcy.
• 1 in 7 families with children will declare bankruptcy
More people will file for bankruptcy than will:
• Graduate from college
• File for divorced
• Have a heart attack

90% of those filing for bankruptcy will be middle-class families.

11:49 -  What do we do about this problem?

12:50 - “The Last Chance Mortgage” – Mr. Vogel explains his plan to fix the problem.

20:18 - Q & A with the audience.

As Guy mentioned, the two of us attended a real estate technology conference last week in New York City. One particular session, The Housing Debate: Bull Versus Bear, was by far the absolute standout of the conference. Andrew Ross Sorkin of The New York Times moderated a diverse panel of industry insiders including Dottie Herman, Barry Ritholtz, Noah Rosenblatt, and Professor Nouriel Roubini. Fortunately for us, Inman posted a video of the entire hour online, totally worth watching. For those of you short on time, here’s my guide to the good parts:

4:45 minutes into the video Barry aptly describes what we’re experiencing in the housing market as the death of a thousand cuts.

8:29 minutes in Noah Rosenblatt says he would not buy now because it’s like trying to catch a falling knife. He says we are two years into a housing recession and only seven months into a credit crisis. Sure, there may be some killer opportunities in local markets, but otherwise he advises not to buy. Furthermore, recession is healthy.

11:15 minutes in, Professor Roubini flat out says that we are headed for a severe recession, no question, and that it will be more severe and protracted than the 1990-91 and 2000-01 recessions recently experienced. He says we’re already in a recession that started in December 2006, that it’s two years to bottom, and that this will be the worst recession in 50 years.

13:00 minutes in, David Lehreah and his series of books receive commentary from his colleagues. Pretty funny.

19:04 minutes in, Barry Ritholtz talks about how long he thinks it will take for Wall Street to open the kimono on lending and get through the process of mortgage recovery. If new CEOs come into these companies and flush the junk right way, sure, it will kill the stock, but recovery will happen faster. Old CEOs are already departing. How long for recovery? Depends on how quickly companies act.

22:50 minutes in, Noah makes an excellent point that we’ve only just begun to see the ramifications of the credit crunch. Sure, subprime fallout lead the way, but Alt-A and Prime are queuing up for further consequences. Knowing that we’ve got AAA paper out there created from junk, if housing prices keep falling, this will create greater problems for Wall Street.

24:47 minutes in was the best moment of the entire session. Professor Roubini relentlessly painted a picture, step by step, number by number, of exactly how far our economy has to fall and how it’s going to happen bit by bit. It was Cramer’s Armageddon without all the yelling. Fact, by fact, by fact, Roubini made a compelling case for the worst recession in 50 years. The video didn’t really pick up the reaction of the audience, which was something along the lines of palpable shock, then gasps, followed by twittering, as in, oh my god I guess we should just shoot ourselves now! Roubini pointed out that beyond the two million foreclosures that everyone talks about, 10 million homes will have negative equity as a result of price declines, so as people give back the keys and net worth evaporates, we can expect to see a massive consumption reduction across the board.

26:33 minutes in, Barry very appropriately reviewed the five stages of grief that you might remember from Pysch 101. This is what we experience when someone dies or we receive very bad news, like you have six months to live. This all came back to him as he was looking over the year end Wall Street reports over the holidays. I guess we’ll all be grieving soon if the economy continues to unravel.

The Bull didn’t really have much of a case in my opinion. The whole thing makes me wonder… does the Manhattan housing market always experience record highs after yet another Wall Street pyramid scheme starts to implode?

Real Estate Connect: Bull Versus Bear

Here’s some innovative marketing. According to this Seller’s Craigslist ad, if you purchase his lot in Old Greenwood, he’ll throw in a house in Austin, TX for free. Check it out here.

And then here are couple flyers I received from builder D.R. Horton recently. The first one arrived a couple weeks ago for a new house priced at $349,362, with the pitch: “Make a (Reasonable) Offer”.  [click on picture to enlarge]

Then last week I received a follow-up flyer that read: “Make a (unreasonable-$255,k) Offer”.

If I’m interpreting these flyers correctly then a reasonable offer on the $342,652 home could be anything above $255,000. Is that how you’re reading this? If so, then $255,001 would put this 2,228 sq.ft. home @ $114/sq.ft. Not bad for a new home in Wingfield Springs. Recent Solds (last three months) there are averaging $162/sq.ft.

Did you happen to catch the ad in the Saturday Homes section of the RGJ for the house for sale on eBay?  The print ad essentially pointed interested parties to the eBay listing.

The property is a former model home in the Woodland Village Master Planned Community in Cold Springs.  The house has 6 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a 2-car garage and 2,240 sq. ft.  It is currently listed on the MLS at $252,900.

The bidding started at $190K.  There is no reserve.  And according to the ad in the RGJ there is a “buy it now” price of $252,900.  The eBay auction ends Wednesday.

This might just prove to be a very effective way to find a buyer for one’s home.  At last count this eBay listing had nine bids.  And the current bid was up to $193,200.

I took a look at the Cold Springs market and found:

95 Active Listings
Average DOM (days on market): 103 days
Median list price of $259,900

11 Pendings
Average DOM: 132 days
Median pending price of $227,900

7 Solds in the last 30 days
Average DOM: 98 days
Median Sold price: $249,900

These numbers yield more than 13 months of inventory in Cold Springs.  The Seller of this property already has nine bids.

I’ll be watching this one with interest.  Anyone want to predict what the final sales price will be?

Well, I have to say, for a lot of people right now, renting seems like a great option. There are plenty of homes from which to choose, and it certainly seems to be cheaper than purchasing in many cases. Here’s a great resource from the Business Week Housing Blog to help you make the right choice. read

But be careful who you rent from, or you may end up unexpectedly evicted when the bank takes back the home. Checking the notice of default list and assessor records to make sure there’s equity in the home is probably a prudent move for renters these days, prior to committing to a lease. read

And in news of the weird: Americans give up friends and sex for the web

So far in our market, my experience with buyers making offers on short sale properties has been difficult, at best. In most cases, the banks have been slow, inflexible or non responsive. They seemed to me like deer in the headlights, unprepared for the process. I’m sure that soon will change.

Dealing with bank-owned properties (already foreclosed, now REO, or real estate owned) has been easier depending on the institution. The best ones are realistic and price to sell, while the worst aren’t and hold out for loan amounts that far exceed market values. As more of these hit the market, the banks will get real, improve efficiency and eventually sell through their inventory.

And what about the social costs? I have a client who would love to buy the house down the street from him for his parents, a bank-owned property that has been through several agents and not enough price reductions. The lender is non responsive. The former agents don’t know what’s going on because the bank doesn’t return their calls. The house is now off the market again, just sitting there, growing weeds, gathering dust, an absolute eyesore in an otherwise nice neighborhood. Did the lender go under? Why the black hole? Here’s a guy who wants to buy at market value, but he can’t get resolution because there’s a faceless, non responsive corporation in charge of this property. Meanwhile, the property rots.

Then there’s the personal cost. The other day I took some buyers through a home in my neighborhood, advertised as a short sale. This home was lovingly decorated, beautifully upgraded, with family pictures on the wall. I felt sad. They seemed like nice people. I don’t know how they got into the situation they were in, but it’s a shame they have to leave this lovely home that they had obviously put so much heart into under these circumstances. I guess I’d better get used to it.

Foreclosure 101: The difference between short sales, foreclosures and REOs. read

If you’re delinquent on mortgage payments and can’t keep up, working with your bank to arrange a short sale prior to foreclosure may be the way to go. read

How do you proceed if you’re behind on payments and your house is worth less than you owe? read

Beware the hazards of the short sale. read

HUD tips for avoiding foreclosure. read

Nevada foreclosure process. read

Yahoo Real Estate’s foreclosure dashboard. see

Foreclosure & REO buying opportunities are not always pretty. read

Foreclosure process overview including tips for buyers. read

Changes in the market will create more opportunities for investors. I’ve always found CRE Online to be one of the best, most interesting investor resources out there.

Dealmaker’s Cafe is another real estate investor community site with lots of resources.

Forced to be a landlord because you can’t sell your house? You’ll find everything you need to know to get started on Mr. Landlord.

No matter what camp you fall into: buyer, seller or renter… this article from CNN Money offers excellent advice for navigating today’s stormy real estate environment. read

So this past week I reached my six-month mark of posting on this blog.  And I’ve been thinking that I no longer need to insert my photo next to my posts.  The original purpose of the insertion of my photo was to provide an easy way to distinguish my posts from Diane’s.  In fact, the original plan was to have a handful of contributing agents, each of whose posts would contain their mug shots.  However, bringing other agents to post to this blog has proven more challenging than we had expected.  But I digress.

Lately, I’ve been thinking that my photo, with my smiling face and the twinkle in my eye, just doesn’t seem to jive next to my posts regarding the state of this depressed housing market.  Regardless, you must be tired of seeing every time I post.

So, what do you think?  Agreed?  Don’t care?  Wondering what this has to do with the Reno real estate market?

Enjoy the weekend.  New images forthcoming.

Happy Friday, everyone. This is my new favorite marketing piece that I give to sellers every time I do a pricing consultation. It explains precisely what you need to do to price your home to actually sell in today’s market, as opposed to having it languish on the MLS for a year or more. Drink me